Hispanics Found to be Powerful Political Factor

According to a recent article published by “The Economist,” the Hispanic population in America is anticipated by many to exhibit significant potential to transform the political landscape.  The U.S. Census, which takes place once every decade, will be conducted this year and will be published in late December.

Many are expecting the official population count to report a dramatic population increase in the Hispanic population.  Some analysts are predicting the Hispanic population to be nearly 16% of the population in the United States.

If that is the case, Hispanics will become the largest minority group.  The African-American population will be shown to have decreased around 2.5% from last census.  The 2000 census reported Hispanics were 12.5% of the population and African-Americans represented 12.9% of the population at that time.

Over the past decade, the Latino population has grown twice as fast compared to the white and black American populations.  This is due to rapid immigration, legal and illegal, and a large number of young adults coupled with a high birth-rate.  Half the babies in Texas, for instance, are born to Latina mothers, even though Latinos make up fewer than 40% of that state’s population.

Trends show that Hispanics are not just settling down in border states.  Many new arrivals from Mexico head directly to look for jobs in the big cities of the south-east and north-east.

Second- and third-generation Hispanics, perfectly acculturated by America’s melting pot, can be found dispersed in all states. In Chicago’s public-school district, 41% of the students are Hispanic.

The Census is the basis on which federal money is distributed and seats in the House of Representatives, and consequently Electoral College votes, are allocated. Once the results of this year’s census are known, up to 18 states could see their congressional tallies altered.

The big, mostly white, states of the north-east will be the losers. The Hispanic-rich border region will gain: Arizona and Nevada will both pick up a seat and booming Texas may get as many as four. Florida will also gain, though highly taxed California has seen an exodus that has counteracted its Hispanic surge.

Needless to say, political implications of the largest minority with the highest growth rate are huge.

The Hispanic voter-turnout rate increases at every election. It hit 50% in 2008, up from 47% in 2004, though that is still quite a bit less than the 66% recorded by non-Hispanic whites or the 65% by blacks.

In a fair number of infamous “swing” states, the Hispanic population in effect holds the balance of power; and as long as they continue to vote solidly Democratic (as they did in 2008, by a whopping 67-31% margin), that is great news for the blue party.

The Hispanic vote for Barack Obama in Florida turned that vital state from Republican to Democratic; the Hispanic vote also proved crucial in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

This creates a dire situation for Republicans in which they must create a battle plan to fight for votes.

In theory, that should not be too difficult.  Culturally conservative, strongly religious, family-oriented and with a long and distinguished tradition of service in America’s armed forces, Hispanics are natural Republicans. But they are also, on the average, poorer than whites, leading to a split with Republicans on the view of social services, like welfare.

George W. Bush managed to appeal pretty well to Hispanics, scoring an estimated 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. But from 2005 onwards, Republicans’ hard stance on immigration reform reversed any progress the Republican had made winning votes in the Latino community.

With mid-term elections coming in November and Census results due out in December, 2010 is projected to be an interesting and dynamic year in American politics.

The Americano/Agencies

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