A Segment of the Latino Electorate is Clearly Up for Grabs in 2010
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Over the past decade, Latino voters have steadily increased their political power, and made a decisive impact in races at all levels
“America’s Voice” just released a report that chronicles how over the past decade, Latino voters have steadily increased their political power, and made a decisive impact in races at all levels, including the Presidency.
The mission of America’s Voice is to realize the promise of “workable and humane comprehensive immigration reform”. Its goal is to build the public support and create the political momentum for reforms that “will transform a dysfunctional immigration system that does not work into a regulatory system that does.”
According to this organization´s report, in 2010, Latino voters are poised to play a crucial role in key House and Senate races across the country. Many analysts have noted that as the Latino electorate grows in size and power, candidates from all political parties must take their views into account to remain viable in an increasing number of House and Senate races as well as future Presidential contests.
While trending Democratic overall, at least one segment of the Latino electorate—foreign-born, naturalized U.S. citizens of Latino descent, who represent 40% of the Latino voter population—has proven to be a true swing constituency.
Candidates for political office in 2010, elected officials, and political strategists would be wise to not just look at how Latino voters are likely to vote this cycle, but why.
The report lays out trends in Latino voting patterns over the last several years, and examines some of the factors that motivate and influence this segment of the electorate.
The report features a list of “Races to Watch”—forty battleground House and Senate contests where Latino voters will play a key role—and details the Congressional districts where Latino voting power is most concentrated.
“The Power of the Latino Vote in America: They Tipped Elections in 2008; Where Will they be in 2010?” examines Latino voting trends, how immigration reform will affect turnout, and identifies 40 battleground races in 11 states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia) where Latinos have an impact.
In the 2008 presidential election, approximately 10 million Latinos voted, a growth of about 2.5 million voters nationwide compared to 2004 and a nearly 4 million person increase since 2000. From 2000 to 2008, Latino voter registration grew 54% and turnout grew 64%.
Latino voters are making an impact in major cities and traditional gateway states, as well as diverse regions of the country. Texas and Florida, which have significant Latino populations going back generations, saw Latino voter turnout grow by 31% and 81% respectively between the 2000 and 2008 elections.
Latino voter turnout between 2000 and 2008 exploded by 157% in South Carolina, 164% in Nevada, 250% in North Carolina, and 392% in Georgia. Latino voters are poised to exert even greater influence in future elections.
Latinos nationwide voted for the Democratic presidential nominee over the Republican by a margin of 59% to 40% in 2004 (Kerry‐Bush) and 67% to 31% in 2008 (Obama‐McCain). The swing was even more pronounced among foreign‐born Latino voters; with 52% choosing Kerry in 2004 and 48% choosing Bush—nearly breaking even—while in 2008 75% chose Barack Obama and 25% supported John McCain.
There is a segment of the Latino electorate that is clearly up for grabs. Although it is true that both parties will need to work hard to continue to court the Latino vote, the report argues that the Republican Party has much to gain by engaging responsibly on comprehensive immigration reform.
However, some political analysts truly question the need for the GOP to engage on immigration reform at this time. They argue that the issue may not be as important as some Democrat leaders say and that the GOP should not get engaged in the type of “comprehensive reform” debate as presented by Democrats like Luis Gutiérrez. Every time the GOP does that, some analysts contend, the results play negatively for the GOP no matter what position they take.
For example, it was expected that Senator John McCain would get the Latino vote for being such a strong supporter of “comprehensive immigration reform.” As we know, that was not the case. Even in his home state of Arizona in the 2008 Presidential election, McCain´s margin of victory (54‐45%) was much lower than anticipated. According to exit polling, Latinos represented 14.8% of the Arizona electorate and voted for Obama by a margin of 56% to McCain’s 41%.
The vast majority of Americans, including Latinos, do not advocate mass deportation but they do not necessarily agree with the “comprehensive immigration reform” that Democrats like Luis Gutiérrez from Illinois are currently trying to debate in Congress.
The Americano
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