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LAUNCH EFFECT

El peso del Mundo sobre Iowa

Romney no cuenta que la verdadera razón era que su abuelo practicaba la poligamia, lo cual era un crimen según las leyes federales.

Por Manuel Pastor. La noche del martes 3 de Enero de 2012 el peso del mundo gravitó sobre el pequeño estado de Iowa. Ni Rajoy con su niña, ni Guindos y Montoro con sus planes, ni Gallardón, Wert o Lasalle con sus banalidades fueron relevantes. Mucho menos el ya de por sí irrelevante ministro (García-Qué?) del “asunto exterior”. Ni siquiera Urdangarín, esquiando en la vecina estación de Aspen, Colorado. Pero tampoco el tándem prusiano-bonapartista de la férrea Merkel y le petit Sarkozy en la Fortaleza Europa, ni los orates de Teherán.

El pequeño estado de Iowa, con sus ciudades más populosas Des Moines, Sioux City, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, etc. y sus pequeños pueblos de granjeros (algunos con los nombres de León y Madrid), donde un día enseñaran lengua y cultura españolas mis ilustres paisanos maragatos Jerónimo Mallo y Ricardo Gullón, ha sido un ejemplo de democracia individual sin condicionamientos partidistas, donde por un instante (con palabras del también astorgano poeta Leopoldo Panero) se ha concentrado el peso del mundo.

La víspera del famoso caucus el propio presidente Obama, no menos irrelevante, regresó a Washington DC de sus largas vacaciones golfistas en Hawaii (un récord obamita: en tres años de presidencia, tres meses jugando al golf).

Iowa, un estado territorial y demográficamente pequeño, ha sido anegado durante las últimas semanas por publicidad electoral negativa contra Newt Gingrich. El responsable ha sido principalmente el “santo” y tramposo Mitt Romney. No deja de ser estadísticamente extraño que en esta campaña haya dos candidatos de esa extraña secta de los mormones, precisamente dos republicanos supermillonarios y liberales “progres” disfrazados ahora de conservadores: Jon Huntsman, ex embajador de Obama en China, y Mitt Romney, ex gobernador del liberalísimo estado de Massachusetts e inspirador del Obamacare. Los mormones son una secta religiosa post-bíblica y post-cristiana, con pulsiones teocráticas y una teología New Age basada en la centralidad de la profecía, con nostalgias de un pasado de prácticas poligámicas y de un cierto colectivismo o cooperativismo económico. Su fundador, el profeta Joseph Smith, fue asesinado precisamente cuando se postulaba como candidato a presidente de los Estados Unidos. Tuvo varias decenas de esposas, y su sucesor Brigham Young incluso llegó a una setentena, algunas menores de edad. En la primera página de su reciente libro No Apology (2010), escrito para esta campaña, Romney ya desliza (una mentira?) digámos una inexactitud, al contar que sus abuelos se vieron obligados a emigrar a México por la intolerancia religiosa (en Estados Unidos?). Romney no cuenta que la verdadera razón era que su abuelo practicaba la poligamia, lo cual era un crimen según las leyes federales. No pretendo ser un inquisidor, solo establecer la verdad, aunque no resulte políticamente correcto.

En la madrugada conocímos los resultados de los caucuses (cerca de 800 asambleas con un total de 122.255 electores republicanos) de Iowa: virtual empate técnico entre Romney y Santorum, con ocho votos de diferencia a favor del primero. A mi juicio, dada la inversión y la energía invertidas, para Romney ha sido una elección relativamente fallida, mientras que una vez más se cumplía la función de esta institución de Iowa: promocionar a un candidato poco conocido, el ex senador católico Rick Santorum. Es muy probable que las candidaturas de Perry, Bachmann y Huntsman ya no levanten cabeza.

Los analistas más finos se concentraron en la batalla por el cuarto lugar (ya que el tercero, el libertario y aislacionista Ron Paul, resulta impresentable para la mentalidad liberal-conservadora GOP) disputado entre Gingrich y Perry, que tuvo como resultado la victoria del primero con un 13 por ciento frente al segundo con el 10 por ciento. La razón es que éstos son los candidatos más fuertes cara a las primarias en el Sur, que se inician a finales de este mes en South Carolina y Florida, el auténtico test para el proceso hacia la nomination en la Convención Republicana que tendrá lugar en Tampa, Florida, el próximo verano.

El escenario inmediato, por tanto, es la continuación del gran debate entre el candidato del Establishment moderado del GOP, Romney, y el más conservador en la percepción popular, Gingrich, con la aparición ahora en la escena de un tercero, Santorum, ideológicamente más próximo a Gingrich, pero perteneciente durante toda su carrera política al Establishment. Creo que en las próximas semanas van a ser decisivos los avales, y particularmente los provenientes de figuras icónicas del movimiento Tea Party como Sarah Palin, Jim Demint y Marco Rubio, pero también eventualmente el de Perry en caso de que éste abandonara la carrera.

En la misma mañana del caucus en Iowa, Gingrich lanzó una seria y justificada denuncia contra Romney, que como hemos dicho había invertido entre 3 y 4 millones de dólares en publicidad negativa contra él. Los medios, con algunas excepciones, inmediatamente han insinuado la “incorrección” política del anterior Speaker, pero lo cierto es que hasta The Washington Post había señalado hasta cuatro “pinochos” (mentiras) en la publicidad anti-Gingrich del equipo de Romney. De todas formas, Gingrich ha anunciado claramente que se propone desarrollar un debate de ideas y prescindir de la publicidad negativa, elogiando precisamente el comportamiento y éxito de Santorum en Iowa.